The No. 11 Utah Utes (11-2) will square off against the Texas Longhorns (7-5) in the Valero Alamo Bowl on New Year’s Eve. Utah comes into the game after a disappointing 37-15 loss to Oregon in the PAC-12 Championship game, while Texas hopes to ride the momentum gained from a 49-24 victory over Texas Tech in its regular season finale.
Though certainly not the bowl game either team was hoping to be in at the beginning of the year – Utah missed out on a potential playoff berth while Texas was ranked in the top ten in the preseason polls – the matchup will be very interesting.
Three Things to Know
Utah’s Defense
The Utes have been a force defensively this season. According to the NCAA’s official website, Utah ranks first in total defense, rushing defense and first down defense, third in defensive touchdowns, and seventh in third down defense. Very few have managed to put up any sort of numbers at all against the Utes during the regular season, with the 37 points allowed against Oregon being the most the team gave up all season.
There is a very key injury for the Utes in this matchup however. Senior safety Julian Blackmon, who earned 2019 AP All-America Second Team honors in his first year as safety for the Utes (he played cornerback his first two seasons), will be out after suffering an injury in the PAC-12 title game. Blackmon has become a staple of the elite Utah defense, recording 60 tackles and four interceptions on the year.
Blackmon will be replaced by Southern Utah native Nephi Sewell, a recent transfer from the University of Nevada-Reno.
The Longhorns Offense
The Longhorns offense may prove to actually be a possible match for the Utes defense. Quarterback Sam Ehlinger has thrown for 3,462 yards this season, tied for 15th in the nation. Ehlinger has also been good against AP Top 25 teams – he boasts a QBR of 134.9 against ranked opponents and threw four touchdowns against likely national champion LSU.
Led by their QB, Texas averaged 35 points per game on the season, using a balanced run-pass scheme that has proven to keep opposing defenses wary and also creates an average of 468 yards of total offense per game.
Over/under, Vegas line
The odds are against the Texas, with Utah entering the game as seven-point favorites. The Utes have been 8-1 against the spread in the last nine games, making them a bettors favorite during much of the season. The over/under line is set at 55, which is a little higher than expected since Utah’s dominant defense has allowed just 13.2 points per game this year.
The majority of experts have picked the Utes to come out on top, including ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), giving Utah a 66% chance to win their twelfth bowl game in 14 tries under Kyle Whittingham.
Prediction
I predict that the Utes will both win the game and beat the spread. Although being a virtual home game for Texas, Utah’s defense will hold up despite the injury to Blackmon and Jaylon Johnson, who recently declared for the 2020 NFL Draft. Defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley is one of the best in the nation when it comes to preparation, and the Utes have had nearly three weeks to prepare. The only possible slip up for Utah could be the motivation factor, with a chance at the CFP and a conference title instead ending in a mid-tier bowl appearance.
Utah 35, Texas 21
The game can be seen on ESPN at 5:30 p.m. MT.
