These have been some of the worst weeks in Utah Utes Football history, and it has nothing to do with football, and everything to do with tragedy.
Aaron Lowe, the beloved sophomore cornerback for the Utes, was shot and killed on September 26th at a house party in Salt Lake City. The shooter, who has since been arrested, has made no comment on any motive.
This death came as a shock to all around him, but is especially tragic considering he was close friends and high school teammate with Ty Jordan, the Ute player who died in December of 2020 from an accidental gunshot wound.
Lowe had worked with the University to set up a scholarship fund in Jordan’s honor and was the first recipient of the award. He had also changed his number from No. 2 to the number Jordan wore, No. 22. The two were close friends and were extremely well-loved in the program.
There was a legitimate concern on whether or not the men of the program would want to play the upcoming match against the USC Trojans, but Donna Lowe-Stern, Aaron’s mother, gave the team her blessing to travel to the Colosseum in the pursuit of a win.
Setting Expectations
Honestly, there should be no expectations for the Utes this week. There are more important things than football, and no one knows that better than this tragedy-stricken Utah team. These young men are grieving the loss of a friend, and no one can be expected to give a peak performance under these circumstances.
I find it highly unlikely that Coach Wittingham would be demanding full attention from his team during this week, but nonetheless, the team is preparing to play, and will be dedicating their performance to Aaron Lowe.
Looking to the Game
As far as Saturday is concerned, the Utes will be visiting USC at the Colosseum, where they have yet to win a game, an 0-8 streak that dates back to 1923. Utah is coming off their bye week, but before this week hosted Washington State. The Utes were victorious, winning 24-13, but the game could’ve gone much worse for Utah, as they fumbled the ball seven times, losing three, and very nearly losing two more.
The Trojans are coming off a dominating performance against Colorado, beating the Buffaloes 37-14. The game put a derailed USC squad back on track, bringing their conference record back to 2-2. WR Drake London put on a show, catching the ball nine times for 130 yards and one touchdown, including a pair of catches that made my jaw drop. No, seriously, go watch these catches.
Who’s got the Edge?
The Utes have had to rely on their defense this season, if that surprises you (it shouldn’t). What I find interesting is that the run defense has been worse than the pass defense, something that isn’t usually seen in Utah Football.
Across four games, the Utes have posted a -0.124 EPA on pass plays, but a -0.052 EPA on rushing plays. For those unfamiliar with EPA, it stands for Expected Points Added. EPA is used to measure value added on a per-play basis, instead of using yards or incompletions, which can be misleading.
The Utes actually rank 14th in pass defense per EPA, tied with Iowa. This is the biggest hope for the team’s success against the Trojans, as USC is much better at throwing the ball than running it. If the Utes can take away some of QB Kedon Slovis’ rhythm, it may force the Trojans to run the ball, where the chances of giving up big plays decrease significantly.
In order to force the Trojans to run, they will need to shut down London Drake, No. 15 on USC. I mentioned him earlier, but I’ll do it again. He is just that good. I suggest that the Utes should put Clark Phillip III on him when in man, but we will have to keep a safety over the top, as Phillip has a huge disadvantage with height.
So Many Options…
On the other side of the ball, Utah faces an interesting coaching decision. USC has fluctuated wildly on defense, giving up over 300 rushing yards to Oregon State, then holding Colorado, San Jose State, and Washington State to under 100. Granted, Oregon State ran the ball 51 times that game, but that still is a six-yard play on average, while against Colorado they gave up two yards per rush.
But the inconsistencies don’t stop there- USC has a very, very low EPA against the pass, ranking 119th in the nation, giving up an average EPA of 0.367 on pass attempts. Stanford was able to get 234 yards out of just 16 completions when they played the Trojans, and Washington State, who has one of the most average passing attacks in the nation, was able to throw for six yards a play in a game where USC rolled over them.
So, do the Utes seek to develop a balanced attack? Do they go through the air? Through the ground? Well, I don’t feel like there’s a wrong answer, but I feel that we need to build off of T.J. Pledger’s great rushing game from two weeks ago. Pledger had ten carries for 117 yards and a touchdown, and I think that is USC’s worst nightmare against the Utes. Their run defense has shown plenty of weakness to teams running repeatedly, and I think the Utes have the backs to handle a large load of carries. 
If they don’t fumble. Please don’t fumble.
Who Ya Got?
Honestly, I can see this game going so many different ways. This Utes’ squad is grieving, and most likely hasn’t put in as much preparation time as they usually would have coming off a bye. That being said, it wouldn’t be a stretch to see the Utes go against this iteration of the USC Trojans and come out successful, so long as they don’t let the Trojans throw for a zillion yards like we usually do.
I have to be frank with my picks. I like USC to win. It feels unfair to say, but they have the history on their side, and they are most likely less distracted right now. I’ll take the Trojans, who are a three-point favorite.
