Utes

Utah Hosts Arizona State in PAC-12 South Showdown

October 15, 2021

Fresh off their first win in the Coliseum, the Utah Utes will play host to the red-hot No. 18 Arizona State Sun Devils.

The Sun Devils are currently 5-1 and are undefeated in Pac-12 play. The Utes come in at 3-2 but also are undefeated against the conference. Arizona State’s solitary loss came against an opponent who Utah knows all too well- BYU. The Cougars beat the Sun Devils 27-17, one week after snapping their losing streak against the Utes.

Besides the team from Provo, ASU and Utah don’t share any other opponents. They do, however, share the Pac-12 South. The Sun Devils currently have the top spot, as they have beaten three opponents to the Utes’ two. A victory for the Utes would give them possession of first place in the South.

The big question that I have coming into this week is one that should be on the minds of many Ute fans: can the Utes repeat their success against USC?

A Path to Victory

So what did the success against USC look like? Attacking through the air, which gave the run game room to breathe. QB Cameron Rising was magnificent, completing 22 out of his 28 attempts, throwing for over 300 yards, and scoring four touchdowns. Now, USC doesn’t have a good secondary. ASU, on the other hand, does.

Arizona State’s pass defense is excellent, as shown by their Defensive EPA against the pass. ASU holds opposing teams to a -0.021 EPA when throwing the ball, the 27th highest in the nation. The Utes will have a much harder time against them than they did with USC, who didn’t even crack the top 100 in Defensive EPA against the pass.

Does that mean that running the ball is a better option? Well, not really. ASU holds teams to -0.005 EPA when running, which ranks lower in the nation, but gives up less EPA against the pass.

But Tyson, what does that mean?

Good question. It means that, while ASU technically ranks higher in passing defense than run defense, their pass defense gives up a couple more EPA than the run defense. If I’m Kyle Whittingham and OC Andy Ludgwig, I’m dialing up an aggressive passing attack. That’s how BYU beat the Sun Devils, and it’s possible for the Utes to do the same.

Play action passes, bootlegs and stretch Run Pass Option plays should give the Utes the best chance of success, as those plays force a defense to cover multiple facets of the field at a time.

Defensively, the Utes have to be better than they’ve been. Arizona State has the fifth-highest total offensive EPA in the nation. Their rushing attack is deadly, led by a stellar offensive line, dual-threat QB Jayden Daniels and workhorse RB Rachaad White. The tandem has racked up 790 yards on the ground this season, both averaging over 5.5 yards a rush.

LB Devin Lloyd and company will have to step up in a big way this week if they want to cause some much-needed havoc against a potent Sun Devil offense. Looking to the Crystal Ball

In preparing for this article, I have consulted a crystal ball that has told me a couple of specific outcomes for this game. I shall share the ball’s wisdom with all of you, but don’t hold me accountable for gambling errors.