Coming hot off a win against the Arizona State Sun Devils, Coach Kyle Whittingham and his Utah Utes (4-2) now look to square off against the Oregon State Beavers (4-2) in Corvallis.
The Utes have been phenomenal after benching QB Charlie Brewer in favor of Cameron Rising during the San Diego State game. Although they lost that game in double-overtime, they’ve since beat their two biggest threats in the PAC-12 South, USC and Arizona State. Utah now sits atop the throne in the division, and ESPN has given them the best chance to win the PAC-12.
While the momentum is on their side, the Utes will have their hands full with a good Oregon State team that’s currently tied for first place in the PAC-12 North.
Beating Back the Beavers
Oregon State has one of the most lethal running attacks in all of college football. If you look at it in rushing yards per game, they average 241, 9th most in the nation. If you look at it in rushing EPA (Expected Points Added), they rank 10th with 0.202 EPA per Rush. If you look at it by rushing touchdowns, the Beavers are 16th in the nation, having scored a total of 18 rushing touchdowns in six games.
Really, any way you look at it, the Utes are up against a very good offense. Star running back B.J Taylor has averaged 6.8 yards a carry, 113 yards a game and has racked up nine touchdowns, shouldering the majority of the rushing load. QB Chance Nolan needs to be watched as well- while the Beaver quarterback isn’t breaking records on the ground, he has been able to pick up key first downs and extend plays using his legs.
The rushing game has been able to carry (get it) the offense to the top of the PAC-12, averaging an astounding 34 points per game. Utah defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley will have to come up with a plan to slow down this terrifying Beaver offense.
Luckily for him, there’s a way to accomplish just that.
Havoc Rate
One of my favorite advanced football metrics, especially for college football, is the havoc rate. Havoc rate measures the number of plays where a defense causes, well, havoc. This can mean batted-down passes, tackles for losses, or turnovers.
Utah’s defense, fortunately, has one of the best havoc rates in the nation at 20% of all plays. That means that when opposing offenses run five plays, one of them has a negative result. Oregon State’s offense, however, is even more susceptible to turnovers.
You see, there’s a pretty good reason why the Beavers don’t pass it often. Sure, the running attack is great, but the passing attack hasn’t been great for how little they throw it. Nolan, the Beaver’s QB, has already thrown five interceptions in only six games.
If the Utes can cause some havoc in the front seven early, they might be able to get the Beavers to start throwing the ball more. That sounds like a tall task, but there are ways this can be achieved.
Firstly, zone blitzes. These plays combine zone coverage with blitzes, leading to confusing reads for the opposing quarterbacks. As the Beaver’s don’t have a lot of faith in their quarterback, blitzing early and often to stop the run will be essential.
Utah has talent in their front seven, most notably LB Devin Lloyd, who is one of the top players at the position in the nation. He is phenomenal when blitzing, and Morgan Scalley knows this. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him dialing up zone blitzes at a high frequency to take advantage of the Beaver quarterback.
A Shoot-out?
But let’s say that the Beaver’s offense is still effective, which is a very large possibility, regardless of what the Utah defense does. Most years, that kind of game is a worst-case scenario for the Utes. This year isn’t quite the same. The Utes can come back from a deficit like they did against ASU, and they can roll over teams like they did against USC.
If it comes down to a shoot-out, I have more faith in Utah’s passing game than Oregon State’s rushing attack. The Beavers are dangerous for sure, but if the game is close in the fourth quarter, the better passing team has the advantage.
Crystal Ball Predictions
Just like last week, I’ve consulted a crystal ball about the outcomes in this game. Last week, the ball went 2-3, but let’s see if it can bounce back this week.
- Oregon State is held to under 200 yards rushing. Normally this wouldn’t be saying much, but that would be keeping the Beavers to 40 yards under their average, a feat in and of itself.
- Utah produces 400 total yards. The Oregon State defense isn’t great, and Utah should take advantage of it.
- Oregon State QB throws two interceptions. The Utah defense is going to cause havoc, even if they allow points.
- The teams will combine for over 56 points. The Over/Under is set to 56.5, and if I had money to bet, I’d agree with the ball and bet the over.
- Utah pulls out their sixth consecutive win against Oregon State. The crystal ball is pretty high on Utah right now, so it sees the Utes pulling a win out on the road.
