This is almost exactly how the Utah Jazz wanted to start the season. After seven games, they are 6-1, only losing to a very good Bulls team, and beating the reigning Milwaukee Bucks on the road in an early-season statement win.
Utah now sits atop the Western Conference, half a game ahead of Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors, and a game and a half ahead of LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers.
However, the Jazz have had fast starts before, only to struggle later in the season. In fact, that kind of season seems pretty typical for Utah. So, the question is this: Can the Jazz sustain this success?
Yes.
Statistical Standings
If you want to look at how good a team actually is, there are several stats that can help us measure just that. Today, and every week, I’ll be putting up where the Jazz stand among other NBA teams in vital statistical categories, allowing us to track together how well Utah is playing.
- Point Differential: +11.9 (2nd) The Utah Jazz trail only the Miami Heat this season in point differential, meaning the Jazz have outscored their opponents by more than just about anyone.
- Offensive Rating: 111.8 (5th) This stat is a measurement of how many points a team will score given a hundred possessions. Anything over 100 is considered good, above 110 is elite.
- Defensive Rating: 99.7 (4th) The close sibling of offensive rating, defensive rating measures how many points a team allows on a hundred possessions on defense. Anything below 105 is good, while anything under 100 is elite.
- Rebounds Per Game: 51.4 (2nd) This should come as no surprise to anyone, but the Jazz are good at rebounding. The only trail, well, the Miami Heat.
- Assists Per Game: 17.4 (30th) The Jazz being dead last in assists per game isn’t that big of a concern, as the offense is still good, but it is something to keep an eye on, especially as the season progresses.
- TOV%: 16.1 (23rd) This is a big concern. Unfortunately, the Jazz turn the ball over on 16% of their possessions, which puts them in the bottom third of the league. I like turnover percentage over turnovers per game, because some teams play with more pace, getting more possessions, meaning that they have more opportunities to turn the ball over.
- Pace: 100.57 (14th) Pace measures how many possessions a team gets in 48 minutes. Getting more possessions means more potential points, but simply having a high pace doesn’t mean that a team has a great offense. Instead, it tells us more about how a team plays. The Jazz don’t push the shot clock, they generally try to find good shots and exploit a matchup.
From the stats above, we can verify a few things about the Jazz. Firstly, they’re really good. They are playing some of the best basketball in the NBA right now, maybe only lagging behind the Miami Heat. They are still a deadly offense, and the defense passes both the stat and eye tests. Being top five in both offensive and defensive rating means that this team can compete with anyone, regardless of matchup.
Honestly, any good power rankings should have the Jazz in their top two. They’re my number one team in the league right now, and that might be because I don’t want Miami to succeed. Call it bias, but I’m a Celtics fan, and I can’t stand that team.
Team Leaders
Now we can examine who’s playing well on the team, using a couple of stats, as always. The following list is of who is leading the team in that particular stat.
- Points per game: Donovan Mitchell (24.9) If you’re surprised by this, you’ve never watched a Jazz game. Mitchell is one of the most explosive, athletic players in the NBA, and Utah’s best bucket-getter.
- Rebounds per game: Rudy Gobert (17.6) Again, not a shocking revelation. Gobert doesn’t just lead the Jazz in rebounds, he leads the league.
- 3P%: Mike Conley (48.6%) Mountain Mike has been phenomenal from three, going 19-39 in the first seven games. His shooting has been a big reason that the Jazz offense is so good- you try defending Donovan, while keeping an eye on Gobert in the paint, and all of a sudden Conley has the ball on top of the key. Deadly.
- Defensive Rating: Hassan Whiteside (91.5) Whiteside leads the Jazz in defensive rating for players who play more than 10 minutes a game. He’s been exactly what the Jazz wanted him to be, and perhaps better.
- Usage Rate: Donovan Mitchell (34.5%) The Jazz use Donovan more than they use anyone else. He has the ball in his hands the most, which explains how he can lead the team in points per game despite early inefficiencies. My money would be on this number decreasing, however. The Jazz want Donovan to be part of the offense, which also means not having to have the ball in his hands so much.
The Crystal Basketball
Now, I trust you all to be able to find valuable information in the stats and analysis I’ve provided about what’s already happened. But, truth be told, I’ve been awful at guessing the future. That’s why I have a crystal basketball, full of whimsy, in fact, that tells me what might happen by next Wednesday. Here are five things the ball says will happen in the upcoming games.
- Donovan Mitchell averages 28 points per game. He’s looking better and better each game, and the ball doesn’t think that’ll slow down.
- Hassan Whiteside has a 4-block game. Whiteside is known for his shot-blocking abilities, and he’s going to show it.
- The Jazz beat the Heat. Utah squares off against Miami on Saturday. The game is in Miami, but fans will be disappointed as the Jazz take care of business.
- Utah loses to the Atlanta Hawks. We play them twice, once on Thursday, once on Tuesday. One of those games is a loss.
- Rudy Gobert has a 20-20 game. The ball is telling me that it’ll happen in the next four games. I think it’ll happen against Miami.
