The Utah Utes (6-3, 5-1) are overwhelming favorites on the road against the Arizona Wildcats (1-8, 1-5).
After beating Stanford 52-7, it makes sense that Vegas odd-makers would have the Utes as 24-point favorites. It makes even more sense when considering that the Wildcats have one victory this decade.
However, the game has yet to be played. I know this sounds cliché, but the Utes can’t overlook the Wildcats. Kind of.
Arizona is Warming Up
When I say that Arizona is warming up, I mean it in the same way as when I take chicken out of the freezer and put it in the fridge. Technically, they’re warmer than they were. The last-place Wildcats won a game (and a conference game, at that) for the first time in 20 games. It’s not only the first win of the season, it’s their first win of the decade, as their last win came against Colorado in 2019 – 763 days ago.
Statistically speaking (looking at some statistics and ignoring others) Arizona isn’t awful. Arizona’s rush defense was key in their 10-3 victory over Cal, and that reflects in their Rush Defense EPA, which is better than Utah’s. Arizona’s Rush Defense EPA is -0.011, 43rd in the nation, while Utah comes in at 0.077, 79th in the nation. They get after the quarterback more than most teams, producing 18 sacks over nine games, third most in the Pac-12. Believe it or not, Arizona is even middle-of-the-pack on getting first downs, tied for 6th in the conference.
So, why is this team awful? Well, they’ve lost their two starting quarterbacks to injury, and now are relying on freshman Will Plummer, who had to leave the game against Cal a couple times with a shoulder and hand injury. They also just don’t score. At all. At this point in the season, they’ve managed to score a touchdown 14 times. Arizona’s thrown 14 interceptions and lost four fumbles, and they average 77 yards of penalties a game, 40 yards more than Utah does.
The Arizona Wildcats have a good run defense, and that’s about it. Their pass defense is solid, but since they are so effective at producing sacks, a lot of teams just choose to run the ball on them until a big play breaks out, pounding it over and over in order to wear them out. Only Stanford and Washington get ran on more, and Stanford’s stats are a little inflated after the Utah game.
What Should The Utes Do?
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
At least, that’s what the Utah coaching staff should say. This Ute squad just pounded the Stanford Cardinal to death, hitting the ground 46 times for 441 yards.
Do it again.
Arizona’s biggest strength is their run defense. Luckily enough for the Utes, they have a phenomenal run offense, the best in the nation per Rush EPA. The offensive line looks unstopable, and RB Tavion Thomas is playing at an elite level. QB Cam Rising was able to get off a couple of deep throws against Stanford, and I’m sure he’d be content doing the same against Arizona.
On defense, I would dial our blitz package up to 11. Zero coverage on most downs, and blitzing LB Devin Lloyd just about every play. There isn’t a better defensive playmaker in the Pac-12, so set him free.
Time for the Crystal Ball
The Crystal Ball has been doing well for itself. Last week, the ball was four-for-five, which is great (unless you had a five-prop parlay). This week, it looks to make it five-for-five.
- Utah rushes for 300 yards. The 300 mark seems tame, compared to the last two weeks. Let’s see if the Utes keep pounding the ball.
- Tavion Thomas has two touchdowns. Again, tame from the ball. Someone should call it out for being a coward.
- Arizona doesn’t score until the second half. According to the ball, Arizona’s offense won’t do a thing until the game is well underway.
- Devin Lloyd has 13 tackles. The Utes’ best defensive player will shine, at least, in the ball’s opinion.
- Utah wins by 30+ points. That would put them to cover one of the biggest point spreads in college football, but the ball feels confident in the Utes.
