Once upon a time, not too long ago, the Utah Jazz looked like one of the most dominant forces in basketball. True, it was only the first eight games, but going 7-1 over your first eight is great, especially in the fashion that the Jazz were doing it in.

Once upon a time, I would’ve said that Utah was the new king of the West, poised to take their second straight 1st seed.

This was once upon a time before the Jazz lost four of their next six games.

Where Did it Go Wrong?

When I wrote last about the Jazz, they had only lost to Miami and Orlando, two games on the road where they struggled to shoot well and looked tired. Understandable losses that happen over the course of a season. Then they beat the Atlanta Hawks pretty soundly, and everything looked good again.

I was able to attend the next game against the Indiana Pacers, which was incredibly fun, but as far as Jazz basketball is concerned, pretty disappointing. Indiana took a small lead and held onto it close. Every time it seemed that Utah could take the lead back, the Pacers would hit a three, or find an easy layup at the rim. They ended up losing 111-100.

In a quick turnaround after the Pacers game, the Jazz played host to the Miami Heat, who previously had beat the Jazz by three points. This game was not decided by three points. Instead, Miami shot incredibly efficiently and ended up winning by six points. Just for kicks and giggles, I want to note that the Jazz missed seven free throws and 36 three-pointers that game.

As the Jazz tend to do, they turned things around and gave fans hope after beating the Philadelphia 76ers 120-85. Bojan Bogdanovic scored a game-high 27 points in the victory, and Utah finally shot well (52% from the field, 42% from three) to bring the Jazz to their current record of 9-5.

Why Does 9-5 Feel so Bad?

Don’t come after me, Jazz fans.

The Jazz are currently the third seed in the West. That’s good, right? Even after all the losses? Well, there’s a four-way tie for third. The Mavericks, Nuggets, and Clippers all have the same record that the Jazz do, and they all got off to much slower starts than the Jazz did.

It also feels bad because of what the Warriors are doing. The Jazz were right up with them in terms of record and, it seemed, in potential. Now Golden State is 12-2 and Steph Curry looks to be an early MVP favorite, averaging 29-6-6.

On top of all that, Utah’s had some bad losses. Orlando is bottom of the Eastern Conference, and Indiana is only two spots higher than the Magic and just lost to the Pistons. The Pistons!

It doesn’t help that the Jazz have had an easy opening schedule, for the most part. They’ve played the Kings twice, the Thunder once, the Hawks twice and the Rockets once. Beating up on bad teams and losing to bad teams isn’t a good look for the Jazz, all things considered.

Looking at the Numbers

The Jazz aren’t frauds, though. Losing to Miami in close fashion twice makes the Jazz record look worse than it is. Tossing up gimmie games to Orlando and Indiana doesn’t help, either. So, we should look at the stats to see how the Jazz are actually performing.

  • Offensive Rating: 1st (113.0) Miraculously, given some streaky games of shooting and taking into consideration their red-hot start, the Jazz still sit on top of the league in offensive rating.
  • Defensive Rating: 10th (104.1) The Jazz still have a very respectable defensive rating, though it has slid somewhat during the last few games.
  • Rebounds Per Game: 6th (47.3) This shouldn’t be a surprise, given that Rudy Gobert still averaging 15.5 rebounds a game.
  • Assists Per Game: 27th (20.9) I’ve mentioned the Jazz’s struggles with assists before, but I was confident they would get better. They’ve gotten worse.
  • Second Chance Points: 22nd (13.1) This is a very concerning statistic, given that the Jazz have great rebounding talent and good defense. Teams average 13 second-chance points a game against Utah, and our average margin of loss is seven points. Cut that in half and the Jazz may not have lost five games.
  • TO%: 19th (15.2%) The Jazz commit too many turnovers. A 15.2% turnover percentage isn’t awful, but eliminating some mistakes would go a long way for the Jazz.
  • Net Rating: 2nd (8.9) Having the second-best net rating in the league is actually incredible, given that the Jazz have a four-way tie for seventh-best record in the league. Winning by 35 points against the 76ers certainly helps.

So, if you look at the picture the stats are painting, the Jazz haven’t been playing awful, nor have they been as bad as their record would indicate. They still hold the top spot in offensive rating and still are clinging to the top ten spot in defensive rating. One thing that every NBA stat-nerd needs to know is regression to the mean, and where the mean is for the Jazz.

The Jazz are a good team with some stupid losses caused by stupid mistakes and inconsistency. They will regress to their mean, which is better than where they currently sit in the standings. It is also good to note that Rudy Gay will be back for the game against the Raptors, assuming all goes to plan. Gay will provide height and leadership for a team that maybe could use both right now.

Ultimately, the Jazz will still be fine. In fact, they’ll be better than fine.

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