The No. 24 Utah Utes (7-3, 6-1) will host the No. 4 Oregon Ducks (9-1, 6-1) in the likely preview of the Pac-12 title game.

If the Utes win, it means they clinch the Pac-12 South, and if the Ducks win, it means they clinch the Pac-12 North. Alternatively, the Utes clinch the South if Oregon State beats Arizona State, and the Ducks clinch the North if Arizona State beats Oregon State.

However, Oregon is currently ranked No. 3 by the College Football Playoff committee, which means that if they win out, they get a trip to the playoffs. If they lose, Oregon almost certainly will not be in the playoff.

As if there weren’t enough stakes in this game, if Utah wins, which would most likely kick Oregon out of the playoffs, both teams will still most likely meet again in the title game. If the two teams meet in the championship game and the Ducks win the second game, the Ducks would go to the Rose Bowl, and Utah would be left in the Alamo Bowl, most likely.

However, if Utah wins both games, they go to the Rose Bowl. If Utah loses both games, they most likely go to the Rose Bowl.

So, should the Utes try to win?

I Guess

Personally, if I was Coach Whittingham, I’m making the executive decision to lose this game and the title game in more secure hopes of making the Rose Bowl, but that idea isn’t a popular one. So the Utes will be ready to play when the Ducks arrive.

Let’s preface my statistical analysis with the following disclaimer: Oregon is really, really good, even on the road. They went to Ohio State and won. They’ve beaten every Pac-12 team they’ve played, except for Stanford (which still doesn’t make sense to me).

They’re also underdogs in Salt Lake City.

The Utes Should Be The Favorites

Utah is currently favored by three points in most major sportsbooks. This might make you scratch your head, but there are good reasons why the Ducks come in as underdogs.

First, the Utes are still undefeated this season at home. All three of their losses have been on the road at BYU, San Diego State, and Oregon State. The Ducks’ one loss came on the road to a Stanford team that Utah steamrolled.

Secondly, the Utes have the advantage of a run offense that should terrify Oregon. Now, the Ducks have a really good rush defense, as one might expect out of a top-ten team, but Utah still has the second-best rushing offense per EPA in the nation. However stout Oregon’s defensive line is, Utah has the best rushing attack that they will see this season, including Ohio State, who committed much more to the passing game.

Thirdly, the Utes have a quarterback who can make deep throws. QB Cam Rising has the power and ability to chuck the ball down the field with precision and power. In a close game, there will be instances where one big throw could make all the difference, and Cam Rising has a tendency to make big throws.

Fourthly, Oregon QB Anthony Brown has struggled in some games with turnovers, while Cam Rising has been more

Fifthly, Utah is wearing some beautiful USS Salt Lake Jerseys and that could be what puts Utah over the edge. (See video below).

Finally, these two teams have everything to play for. When both teams are desperate for a victory, you never know what will happen, so the home team is the favorite.

Anyways, Why Oregon Will Still Win

I really want Utah to win. It would be an amazing victory for the squad and shoot them higher into the rankings. However, and I mentioned this before, but Oregon is really good.

The Ducks are athletic on every level, and have a few NFL-ready players, most notably LB Kayvon Thibodeaux, who is projected to be an early first-round pick. Utah fans will remember the last time these two teams met, when Thibodeaux tore the Utah offense to shreds seemingly single-handedly.

Ultimately, and perhaps I’m just pessimistic, but it feels like in close games, Utah can come up short. In important games, Utah seems to lose. Oregon is well-coached, has a great roster, and needs to win. Utah has those things too, but just a little less than Oregon. Talent will win out, but it’ll be close.

The Crystal Ball Predictions

Every week I do this, the ball is either on the money or way out in left field. Let’s see what we get this time.

  • Utah Rushes for over 200 yards. Getting Tavion Thomas back will be huge, and Utah will most likely attack the ground as a priority.
  • Oregon Sacks Rising 5 Times. Thibodeaux and company (which includes Noah Sewell, cousin of Utah’s Nephi Sewell and younger brother of Penei Sewell of the Detroit Lions) are aggressive at getting to the QB. It’s gonna happen often this week, according to the ball.
  • Cam Rising Throws a Late Interception. The game will most likely be close, and Rising will force a throw that leads to a game-sealing interception.
  • Utah Forces a Single Turnover. The ball won’t even say what kind of turnover. Coward.
  • Oregon Wins by 7. The ball isn’t going to say a specific score, but I will: 28-21.

 

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