After a historic 2021 campaign for the University of Utah football program, what can we expect from the Utes in 2022?
Last season
The Utes are coming off of their best season since they joined the Pac-12 in 2011. Despite beginning the season with the tragic deaths of both Ty Jordan and Aaron Lowe, the Utes turned their season into a success. Unranked for much of the season, the Utes turned some difficult early losses into a 10-4 record (8-1 Pac-12), as well as a first-ever Pac-12 championship. They followed with a close loss to Ohio State in the Rose Bowl, Utah’s first-ever appearance in the game. However, the season was still far from perfect. After starting the season 1-2 – including a loss to BYU for the first time since 2009 – as well as losses to Oregon State and in the Rose Bowl, the Utes have much to improve on in 2022.
Taking The Final Step
In 2022, the Utes look poised to make a jump. Despite losing Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year and first team All-American Devin Lloyd to the NFL Draft and other key starters (Britain Covey, Nephi Sewell, etc.), much of last season’s roster is returning. Additionally, some transfers and recruits are worth watching, such as Mohamoud Diabate from Florida and four different 4-star recruits. The roster certainly has as much talent this year as a Utes team has ever had.
There is no doubt that expectations for the Utes this season are high. The question is, can reach these never before obtained heights? Utah received a preseason No. 7 AP poll ranking, far and away the highest preseason rank in the program’s history. Clearly, the Utes can contend for a championship, and they are more well-poised to reach that goal than ever. No team from the Pac-12 has made the College Football Playoff since the 2016-17 season (Washington), while no Pac-12 team has won the CFP since its inception in 2014. The Utes have the talent and momentum to change these, but how realistic are these goals?
State of Utah FBS college football: 2022 schedule breakdown and predictions
CFP Chase
Starting with a No. 7 ranking, Utah is already in the CFP mix to start the season and have a pretty direct road to get there. Based purely on the previous season’s records, the Utes have the 107th hardest schedule, which is lower than any team ranked in the Top 15 outside of Michigan (112).
Firstly, a loss to a lower-ranked team may be near impossible to recover from in the eyes of the committee. Secondly though, this is not an entirely accurate metric. Take for example USC, who Utah plays on October 15 in Salt Lake City. The Trojans were 4-8 last season, missing a bowl game for the third time in four years and at first glance plays into the “easy schedule” narrative.
However at second glance, one can clearly see this USC team is much improved. In fact, they are currently the co-favorite to win the Pac-12 (with Utah) at +210 odds. Ranked No. 14 in the preseason and flourishing following the addition of new coach Lincoln Reilly and a flurry of high-profile transfers, USC, along with Oregon, are the two biggest threats within the conference for the Utes.
Key Matchups
The Utes have a couple of big games to look forward to throughout this next campaign. Here are the three matchups that could make or break the team’s season.
Saturday, Sep. 3 – @ Florida
To open the season, the Utes travel to Gainesville for a tough non-conference matchup against the Gators. The Utes are 1-6 all-time when playing against the SEC, with the lone win coming against Alabama in the 2009 Sugar Bowl.
Other than that game, Utah has not faced an SEC team since battling Tennessee in 1984. Beginning the season with a win against a prestigious – although rebuilding – program like Florida could be the adrenaline shot the Utes need to make the CFP.
Saturday, Oct. 15 – vs. No. 14 USC
The Utes face Lincoln Riley’s newly rejuvenated USC program just after the midpoint of their season, a point where either team could very reasonably be anywhere in the Top 25. It seems more likely than not that both teams will be on the higher side of the poll rankings when they face one another. A star-studded roster led by QB Caleb Williams, WR Jordan Addison, and a group of highly-rated transfers will likely prove to be the Utes’ most challenging game of the season.
Saturday, Nov. 19 – @ No. 11 Oregon
For their second to last matchup of the regular season, the Utes will play an Oregon team with something to prove and revenge on their minds. After decidedly winning both games against the Ducks last season – Pac-12 championship included – the Ducks certainly have November 19th circled on the calendar. With transfer Bo Nix fighting redshirt freshman Ty Thompson for the starting QB job, the team could suffer under a lack of clear leadership, but they certainly cannot be written off.
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Prediction
Ceiling
The Utes’ ceiling is, simply put, a national championship. In the best case, the Utes go undefeated, which leads to a top four ranking and a CFP berth, where Utah then win it all. While this isn’t the most likely scenario, it is most certainly far from impossible.
Floor
At their worst, the Utes would likely start off the season with an embarrassing loss to Florida and never truly recover from the loss of Devin Lloyd on defense. They finish the season 7-5, with losses coming from Florida, San Diego State, UCLA, USC, and Oregon.
Most Likely Scenario
10-2 (7-2 Pac-12)
Wins: Florida, Southern Utah, San Diego State, Oregon State, UCLA, Washington State, Arizona, Stanford, Oregon, Colorado
Losses: USC, Arizona State
The Utes start off the season hot, with blowout wins in their first three games, jumping into the Top 5. They then overlook a matchup against Arizona State, losing a tough one in overtime. Fighting to make it back into the CFP race, the Utes win a few more games before losing to USC in a shootout.
The Utes then win out – including a close win against Oregon – before watching an 11-1 USC team win the Pac-12 and break the conference’s drought of playoff appearances.
Utah then finishes with a No. 8 ranking and ruing missed chances, but win the Rose Bowl as Pac-12 runners-up. While not an ideal season after high preseason expectations, it wouldn’t be the worst either. The Utes finish with their highest end-of-season ranking since 2008-09, prompting a flurry of recruits and transfers.
2022 season begins
The Utes kick off the 2022 season on Saturday, September 3, traveling to Florida to face the Gators. The game is scheduled to kick off at 5 p.m. MT and can be seen on ESPN.
