Following their first win of the season to open the AFC West portion of the schedule, the Raiders look to improve their record to 2-3 against the Kansas City Chiefs, and maybe salvage what is currently left of their season. With the chance to go 2-0 in division play and draw within one game of first place in the division, a win against the Chiefs may be all the Raiders need to turn their season around.
Matchup history
Since Derek Carr took over as quarterback for the then Oakland Raiders in 2014, the Raiders have matched up with the Chiefs a total of 16 times. The Chiefs are 13-3 in those 16 matchups. Derek Carr has averaged 242.4 yards, 1.5 touchdowns, and 1.1 interceptions, throwing at least one interception in his last 7 matchups. The Chiefs have won 7 of the 8 matchups against the Raiders with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. Opposite Carr, Mahomes has averaged 318.3 yards, 2.8 touchdowns, and 0.4 interceptions against the Raiders in his career. Simply put, Mahomes shines against the Silver and Black, and Derek Carr has had a bit more difficulty against the Chiefs. Although the past hasn’t been great for the Raiders, there is plenty of hope. Despite all the statistics, the Raiders have never had Davante Adams until this game, and a playmaker like that can change the course of a game dramatically. Additionally, Mahomes lost one of his best playmakers in Tyreek Hill, which leaves the Chiefs’ offense much less dynamic.
Preview
Coming into Week 5, the 3-1 Chiefs are having a significantly better season than the 1-3 Raiders. Two weeks removed from a bad loss to the winless Colts, the Chiefs have kicked their offense into overdrive, scoring 41 against the Buccaneers Sunday night. The Raiders, also looking to turn consecutive wins into a winning streak, seem to be recovering from an atrocious start to their season. While the Chiefs are at first glance a much better team overall, they are far from impossible to beat.
Game notes
Offense vs. defense
The Chiefs currently have the NFL’s best rush defense, allowing a mere 65.8 yards per game on the ground. However, they have the sixth-worst pass defense, allowing 263.8 yards per game. Derek Carr has enough big play ability with his elite receiving corps to be able to capitalize on a weak Chiefs pass defense, giving the Raiders’ offense significant capability to maintain momentum in a shootout. Despite their 1-3 record, the Raiders have the 14th-ranked passing offense in the NFL, and a team with Davante Adams, Darren Waller, and Hunter Renfrow lining up on the outside has significant ability to break into the top 10.
Watch the penalties
The Raiders’ defense currently has the second most penalties in the NFL with 31 (just under 8 per game). Patrick Mahomes is one of the most gifted quarterbacks in the NFL at capitalizing on free plays, and a sloppy Raiders defense may give the Chiefs offense some unnecessary first downs, something for Josh McDaniels’ defense to be aware of. Additionally, the Chiefs’ defense has the second least penalties with 17.
Will kicking issues change the game plan?
While Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker is still questionable to play this week, the Chiefs have been shuffling kickers throughout the season trying to find a suitable replacement until he can return. Not having trust in their kicker may make Andy Reid more likely to attempt a fourth-down conversion. Despite having the third-highest third-down conversion rate in the league at 51.1 percent, if the Chiefs run into third-down struggles around the 30-40 yard lines, they may try going for it on fourth, a feat they have accomplished 50 percent of the time this season.
Prediction
Despite coming off of a big win against Denver, the Raiders are not able to keep up with Kansas City’s dynamic offense. Mahomes throws for 350 yards and two touchdowns, one of which goes to Travis Kelce, while Davante Adams shines for the Raiders with a second straight 100-yard receiving performance.
Chiefs 38, Raiders 27
The Raiders and Chiefs kick off on Monday, Oct. 10 at 6 p.m. MT. The game can be seen on ESPN.
