BYU football: Game-by-game predictions for 2024

It’s been a long time coming, especially after the Cougars dropped two winnable games to end the season at home against Oklahoma, and then on the road against Oklahoma State. That resulted in a five-game losing streak and no bowl appearance either. In fact, the Cougars haven’t had a worse slump like that to end the season since 1995, well before the LaVell Edwards era began.

This year, the build-up to the 2024 season has been quiet as the Cougars were predicted to finish 13th in the Big 12 preseason poll. It doesn’t help that the biggest position — quarterback — is still one of the biggest question marks on the team. This combined with the season-ending slump and current projections by analysts is why the offseason has been quiet compared to prior years. But perhaps that’s a good thing for players and coaches as it puts a chip on their shoulder. The Cougars return a lot of experience with 14 starters, however, they do have one of the toughest schedules in the conference.

The big question now is whether BYU can turn things around and secure a bowl berth in their second year as a Big 12 team. With that, here’s my take on how the 2024 season will unfold for BYU with my game-by-game predictions.

BYU vs. Southern Illinois (August 31)

This should be a fun game for Cougar fans, but we all know what happened last year in the 14-0 win over Sam Houston State. The Cougars can’t have a repeat performance of that if they want to go bowling this season.

BYU has never lost to an FCS team and I don’t see that happening again, however, the Salukis won’t be pushovers as they are ranked No. 11 in FCS. Given BYU’s track record of underwhelming season openers under head coach Kalani Sitake, this game is crucial. Strong performance and style points are essential, not just for securing a win but for demonstrating that this year’s team is poised for a turnaround from the disappointing finishes of 2017 and 2023. A convincing victory would serve as a strong statement that BYU has made meaningful progress since last season.

Prediction: Win (1-0)

BYU @ SMU (September 6)

SMU’s narrow 29-24 victory over Nevada revealed several weaknesses that BYU could exploit. The Mustangs, who were fortunate to avoid an opening loss looked shaky throughout much of the game. SMU quarterback Preston Stone, who returned from a season-ending injury, was rusty in the first half but found his rhythm later. however, like the Cougars, the Mustangs also currently have a two-quarterback situation. And as the adage goes, “If you have two quarterbacks, you have none.”

For BYU, this game presents a big opportunity. Traveling and playing in the Texas heat will be a challenge, however, SMU’s lackluster performance and ongoing issues could play to BYU’s advantage. With their defensive line, led by preseason All-Big 12 pick Tyler Batty, poised to capitalize on SMU’s weaknesses, BYU has a solid chance to pull off an upset. Given BYU’s recent history of September surprises, they could well continue their trend of early-season upsets. If BYU wants to go bowling this year, this game can be a make-or-break for the Cougars.

Prediction: Win (2-0)

BYU @ Wyoming (September 14)

BYU’s return to Laramie after a 15-year absence is set to reignite a classic rivalry dating back to BYU’s inaugural season in 1922. The Cowboys have been formidable at home, remaining unbeaten in Laramie since a close loss to Boise State in 2022. The Cowboys are coming off a successful nine-win season last year, but will be breaking in a new quarterback, Evan Svoboda, who transferred from Snow College.

This game holds significant importance for Wyoming — they will treat it as their Super Bowl — so BYU can’t come out flat against a team and town that is overly hyped. I expect this game to be very close, but I think BYU will be able to find a way to win. It doesn’t hurt that the Cougars have an 8-game winning streak against the Cowboys.

Prediction: Win (3-0)

BYU vs. Kansas State (September 21)

I expect Kansas State to win this game, but there is a lot of optimism for Cougar fans. The Wildcats are one of the favorites to win the Big 12, however, there are notable trends to consider for Kalani Sitake-coached teams. As we all know, the Cougars are good about starting the season strong, but due to the lack of depth, the last half of the season is always very challenging, no matter who they are facing.

Over the years, the strong starts have included wins over Utah, Arizona State, Arkansas, and Baylor just to name a few. This game could very well be one of the times as the Cougars will be playing their first Big 12 home game, the Cougars should be undefeated, and KSU quarterback Avery Johnson will be making his first-ever Big 12 road start. I think the game is closer than most people expect, but I do think the Wildcats survive.

Prediction: Loss (3-1)

BYU @ Baylor (September 28)

This one feels like a toss-up and could go either way. Both teams struggled last year, with Baylor going off the rails. But just like the Cougars, they are looking to bounce back. I think the Bears will be improved from a year ago and should be right on par with BYU this year.  Baylor will likely be favored playing at home, but I think the Cougars can squeak out a win here.

Prediction: win (4-1)

BYU vs. Arizona (October 12)

Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita was terrific last year, but he was also playing in the Pac-12 conference — the lowest level of the P5 conferences. It remains to be seen what he does against better competition. He should still be great, but I’m not sure he’s the best quarterback in the conference as some people are calling him. Obviously, this is going to be a challenge for BYU with Fifita’s athleticism and the Wildcats’ high-powered offense, however, the Cougars do get a bye and the game is at home so while I expect Arizona to win, I think it will be closer than most people expect.

Prediction: Loss (4-2)

2024 Big 12 schedule rankings: Utah and Kansas have easier paths, BYU and Colorado face tough slate

BYU vs. Oklahoma State (October 18)

Will the Cougars get their revenge after blowing a 24-6 lead at halftime last year? Fans are surely hoping so after an agonizing double OT loss last year in Stillwater, Oklahoma kept BYU from getting to a bowl game. Oklahoma State running back Ollie Gordon is one of the most talented running backs in the nation, however, quarterback Alan Bowman remains inconsistent which provides BYU with some opportunities. If BYU’s run defense is improved from last year, I think BYU can hang with the Cowboys who are one of the favorites to win the Big 12. I think it will be close, but BYU falls just short and OSU capitalizes on its bye week preparing for the Cougars.

Prediction: Loss (4-3)

BYU @ UCF (October 26)

Playing in the state of Florida has never been kind to BYU. In fact, anywhere on the East Coast has been unkind to BYU over the years. For whatever reason, the Cougars just struggle. To me, this game feels a lot like TCU last year where the Cougars get blown out. This is also part of the season where BYU’s depth is wearing down, especially when playing top teams who should contend for the conference title.

Prediction: Loss (4-4)

BYU @ Utah (November 9)

A conference game between BYU and Utah — yeah that’s strange to think about after the programs playing as non-conference foes over the past 14 years.

BYU won the last meeting in 2021 to end the streak, however, the Utes have still won 9 out of the last 10 games in the series. The Utes will certainly be favored as they have more depth and Rice-Eccles is one of the hardest places to win west of the Mississippi. I think the Cougars can keep it close — you never know what happens in rivalry games — but I expect it will be another thrilling matchup between both programs.

Prediction: Loss (4-5)

BYU vs. Kansas (November 16)

This matchup is ripe with intrigue with the return of offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes to Provo. Kansas brings a potent offensive threat led by running back Devin Neal and quarterback Jalon Daniels, who, if healthy, is one of the top quarterbacks in the country.

The health of Jalon Daniels will be a crucial factor with last years backup now in the NFL. If Daniels is healthy, I expect Kanas to beat BYU, however, if Daniels is banged up and or sidelined, I believe BYU could capitalize on the opportunity and get an upset at home.

Prediction: Loss (4-6)

BYU @ Arizona State (November 23)

Arizona State was not good at all last year and I don’t see that changing anytime soon. BYU has the better roster and I expect them to go on the road and get another Big 12 win. I’m also expecting the Cougars to have more fans at the game than ASU, which should help the Cougars feel right at home.

Prediction: Win (5-6)

BYU vs. Houston (November 30)

Here we go again.

Just like last season in the regular season finale, it’s win and become bowl eligible or lose and the season is over. Thankfully for Cougar fans, the game is in Provo this time and it’s against a Houston team that will likely finish near the very bottom in Big 12 play. I like BYU’s chances and believe they’ll get the win and become bowl-eligible. BYU is also unbeaten against Houston (3-0) and I don’t think that is changing this year.

Prediction: Win (6-6)

Most betting sites and national pundits have BYU going 5-7 again, however, I think the Cougars pick up an upset along the way to get to 6-6 and become bowl-eligible.

2024 Big 12 schedule rankings: Utah and Kansas have easier paths, BYU and Colorado face tough slate